No Certain Doom: On the Accuracy of Projected Global Average Surface Air Temperatures

Even the most advanced climate models are making errors so large the projected temperatures have no meaning. This lecture by Patrick Frank, Ph.D. explains why from a mathematical perspective. 28:00 into the lecture makes the statement previously quoted.

What do climate models reveal about future global average temperature? NOTHING.

What do climate models reveal about a human Green House Gas fingerprint on the terrestrial climate? NOTHING.

There is no evidence whatsoever that Green House Gases do anything to the climate.

Patrick Frank, Ph.D.
Scientific Staff

SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory

April 1986 – Present (30 years 8 months)Stanford University


“The Solution Structure of [Cu(aq)]2+ and its Implications for Rack-Induced Bonding” (2005) Inorg. Chem. 44, 1922-1933.

“A New Structural Motif for Biological Iron: Iron K-edge XAS Reveals a [Fe4-μ(OR)5(OR)9-10] Cluster in the Ascidian Perophora annectens” (2006) Inorg. Chem. 45, 3920-3931.

“The Uptake and Fate of Vanadyl Ion in Ascidian Blood Cells and A Detailed Hypothesis for the Location and Mechanism of Biological Vanadium Reduction: An X-Ray Absorption Spectroscopic Study” (2008) J. Inorg. Biochem. 102, 809–823.

“The XAS Model of Dissolved Cu(II) and Its Significance to Biological Electron Transfer” (2009) Journal of Physics: Conference Series 190, 012059; 1-12.

“Ancient Wood of the Acqualadrone Rostrum: Materials History through Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry and Sulfur X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy” (2012), Anal. Chem. 84, 4419-4428.

“XAS Spectroscopy, Sulfur, and the Brew Within Blood Cells from Ascidia ceratodes” (2014) J. Inorg. Biochem. 131, 99-108. 

“A High-Resolution XAS Study of Cu(ClO4)2 in Liquid and Frozen Aqueous Solution: Pyramidal, Polymorphic, and Non-centrosymmetric” (2015) J. Chem. Phys. 142, 084310.

“Solvation structure of the halides from x-ray absorption spectroscopy ” (2016) J. Chem. Phys. 145, 044318.

Other Publications

“Whence the ‘Noble Savage’” (2001) Skeptic, 9(1), 54-60.

“On the Assumption of Design” (2004) Theology and Science 2, 109-130.

“Science is not Philosophy” (2004) Free Inquiry 24(5), 40-42.

“A Climate of Belief” (2008) Skeptic 14(1), 22-30.

“Uncertainty in the Global Average Surface Air Temperature Index: A Representative Lower Limit” (2010) Energy & Environment 21(8), 969-989.

“Negligence, Non-science, and Consensus Climatology” (2015) Energy & Environment 26(3), 391-414.

“Progressivism is Hostile to Humanism” (2016) New English Review, March.

No Certain Doom: climate model reliability:

A Climate of Belief


San Francisco State University
Bachelor of Science (BS), Chemistry

San Francisco State University
Master of Science (MS), Physical Organic Chemistry

Stanford University
Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.), Chemistry
Activities and Societies: William H. Nichols Graduate Fellow

Weizmann Institute of Science
Postdoctoral Studies, Bioinorganic Chemistry of the Four-Copper Oxidase, Laccase
Activities and Societies: Bergmann Postdoctoral Fellow